The U.N.’s talks today in Almatay, Kazakhstan, on water management in the central Asian states couldn’t come at a more relevant time. Last week saw a major bump in the road for the region’s trans-boundary water disputes as Kyrgyz electricity shortages kicked off calls for more hydro-electric dams, and more water sharing strains for downstream neighbors.
As Kyrgyz electrical shortages increase, so does its need to build more hydro-electric dams like this one on the Naryn River. Downstream countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan aren't very happy about it. (Photo Courtesy: Ian Gill)
As NewEurasia reports this week here, Kyrgyzstan is facing even more drastic limits on its electricity supply, causing multiple energy shut-downs in Bishkek. So it came as no surprise when the country announced the very next day plans to construct two new hydro-electric dams, as a Xinhau story outlines here.
It makes sense: stark electric shortages, plans to create more electricity.
No-brainer for the Kyrgyz government, but downstream countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, who depend on the Syr Darya river for agricultural irrigation and municipal water supplies are crying foul.
While Kyrgyz officials claim the water quantity arriving downstream remains unchanged, these downstream neighbors seem to suffer more from the timing of water releases, rather than the quantity. Times when downstream farmers need vital irrigation water, for example, are often the same periods in which upstream users are building up water holdings to generate electricity later in the season when supplies are low.
With their largest headwaters sections in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are the lifeblood of Central Asia's agricultural, municipal, and hydro-electric capacity.
The Uzbeks, however, also fear that the Kyrgyz’ ability to diversify their energy sources will ween them from dependence on Uzbek gas, of which they are currently major purchasers. A report in today’s Radio Free Europe, here, supports this observation, based on a Kyrgyz official’s disclosure that the Uzbeks charge Kyrgyzstan $240 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas, while only charging Kazakhstan $84 for the same amount.
This preference toward downstream countries jives with a movement underway to unite them in an alliance to leverage negotiated influence over Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, which both sit atop the Amu Darya and Syr Darya waters, where most of Central Asia’s water flow originates. Both countries have similar advantage of controlling the volume, timing, and hyro-electric development of these waters, to the direct impact of their downstream neighbors–a topic we’ve posted on before, here, in a piece about Russia’s use of central Asian hydropolitics as an open door for greater regional influence.
In the end, however, downstream alliances, UN conferences waxing noble about sharing water, and Russian influence will do little to alter the fact that Kyrgyzstan’s energy shortages and water resources will not change–nor will Turkmenistan’s.
For that reason, the geographical and economic factors underlying their relationships will not change. Nor will their position on development.
Our take? Well, a broader perspective on central Asia sees that all these fledgling democratic states need more unifying issues and fewer divisive ones. Russia, for example, loves to see CIS states fight over such a vital resource as water, or energy, or pipeline routes for natural gas. A major world player like Russia isn’t tied to these issues the same way these smaller states are. Moscow has energy. It has pipelines. It has electricity. It also has a sturdy level of influence when it comes to offering huge carrotts–billions in aid, the same ammount in bribes, or leverage over its own energy distribution networks–to play central Asian states off of one another to the tune of its own advantage… booting U.S. troops from the Manas Airbase in exchange for Kyrgyz aid and Russian firms ponying-up for energy development underwriting, is one recent example.
While we worry about water and energy supplies in these states, we worry more about the long term trend of their ability to divide the states against one another. United we stand, divided… well you know.
Tags: Central Asia Electricity, Central Asia Gas, Central Asia Water, Manas Airfield, Russian Diplomacy, U.N.
December 24, 2009 at 7:14 pm
[...] is interesting to note that the Ukbeks have not been averse, in the past, to a little profit from their gas. . . . the Uzbeks charge Kyrgyzstan $240 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas, [...]
December 25, 2009 at 4:52 pm
[...] is interesting to note that the Ukbeks have not been averse, in the past, to a little profit from their gas. . . . the Uzbeks charge Kyrgyzstan $240 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas, [...]