Hydropolitics: Kyrgyzstan’s open door for Russian Nimbyism

Not in my back yard.

That’s the nexus of Russia’s outlook on the U.S. in Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan is going right along with it.

A report in today’s Irish Times, linked here, elaborates on how Russia is exploiting regional hydro-politics to undermine the United States’ position among Central Asian states. As this piece reports, following Kyrgyzstan’s decision to oust a key U.S. base in Manas to receive a multi-billion dollar Russian aid package, they’re also getting some help developing their hydro-energy resources, a vital need for Kyrgyzstan.

The Syr Darya river is one of two key supplies of water and potential hydro-power in Central Asia. (Map Courtesy: David Derrick.)

Kyrgyzstan plays a dominant role in the supply of water and hydropower as it sits on the upside of the Syr Darya river that winds from the Eastern Kyrgyz Mountains down through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan again, and finally into Kazakhstan. Anyone downstream–farmers, tribal well-diggers, and would-be hydro-energy producers–are at Kyrgyzstan’s wims.

Hence, the underlying dynamic for a complicated web of local, regional, and international conflicts over water. These beefs range from regional political squabbles over electricity shortages and localized tribal ground water conflicts to assassination attempts by competing national governments, a topic discussed in an IWPR piece that ran yesterday, linked here. In a broader regional context, the boys over at Registan.net (Much Respect) posted a well-developed look at water issues in the Aral Sea basin, here.

Big water issues, little states.

Enter Russia.

We follow Russian subversion of U.S. influence in the region with keen interest, and can’t help but notice the role Russia wants to play in helping play these countries off one another through hydro-electric energy competition. (We’ve posted here, here, and here, about Russia’s attempts to subvert American influence in its perceived backyard.)

When Kyrgyzstan lacks the financing, technical resources, and engineering expertise to develop its hydro-energy resources, Russia sees an exploitable weakness. On the heels of Russia’s multi-billion dollar aid package to persuade Kyrgyz officials to eject the U.S. base at Manas, lesser-known deals are following to help the country’s Hydro development.

Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul Reservoir. Hydro-power and other water resources spell Kyrgyzstan's dominant position in all things water in Central Asia. Russia is taking advantage. (Photo Courtesy: Andrei Shevelov.)

Ironically, Russia is learning from U.S. playbook on energy politics. The United States improved its position in Middle-Eastern affairs and global energy markets through Saudi Arabia’s need to develop vast crude oil resources and establish internal security in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

Russia caught-on. They see an opportunity to dominate Heartland Politics through regional hydro-energy development and competing political factions among neighboring states who can’t resolve their water needs. After all, Russia drew the border lines that divide cultural homelands and natural resources to pit state against state and tribe against tribe. It’s only natural for their advantage to continue.

Great Game, new chapter.

But what about the United States’ hopes for helping elevate the Central Asian states into cooperative partners toward regional security, economic growth, and energy development?

Its unclear whether U.S. foreign policy makers connect the competing layers of international influence to their advantage like Russia is doing. Water politics tend to play-out at the regional level, while the U.S.’s aims tend to focus on the global energy game and regional security. Missing the overlapping connection between the two will be costly for us. But we don’t work in the White House so we’re not sure if there’s a disconnect.

Russia gets it. They suck, but they get it. They’re now playing good-son politics to their advantage and to Central Asia’s detriment. They know of the stain they’ve left in the region. But by helping certain states like Kyrgyzstan develop their hydro-electric resources, they create a dependence that boxes out the U.S. and exacerbates the competition for water between their neighbors. Pick the good son, dote on them, make the other siblings strive for your approval.

The Lollipop Kid: Kyrgystan's diplomatic position with Russia. Russia knows it can dote on Kyrgyzstan like the favored CIS sibling, giving them an advantage in the region and squeezing out American influence.

[Kyrgyz officials smile adoringly, licking their lolly pop, as their hungry siblings in Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan look on with envy as author types. U.S. troops at Manas continue boxing-up their belongings. Explosions continue near the Khyber pass.]

If the U.S doesn’t recognize and answer this need in a way that’s not viewed as intrusive–like tanks and humvees buzzing around bombed-out roads–and can use water politics to unite neighboring states, then Russia’s dominant role will continue.

But how to do this? Wel… we don’t know. If we did we wouldn’t be banging away at a computer in the mountains in Montana.

But… it must start with a recognition of two regional political dynamics, and a reforming of U.S. policy in response. First, as mentioned above, regional resource politics impact the international. The IMU, the Mujahideen, Al-Queda, and all the tribal factions vying for power live places. They recruit from places. They trace their cultural lineage to places. Those places are effected by water, and the livelihood of those places depend on water–farms, wells, electricity, power.

Improve the use, quality, and sharing of water, and you improve the lives of people in all those places. If your name is on the improvement, the places will remember. And if your name is associated with growth in the agricultural sectors, improved access to electricity, and the economic fruits that come with energy development, people might not think you’re only interested in natural gas pipelines and Osama bin Laden.

Secondly, the U.S. will always have the chance to the be the good guy in ways the Russians never will. Russia’s abusive paternalism could easily be replaced by a rich, kind Uncle. (Hillary are you reading?) Russia’s raped and killed a region’s people and economy for well over a century and people remember that. They may offer peachy deals at the end of unspoken threats and mountains of cash to corrupted public officials, but until it reaches people on the ground by improving their lives, nothing has changed. [Hungry, weary refugees leaving South Ossettia tearfully nod in agreement as author types.]

To local folks, Russia is just another player in the Great Game and they’re still just pawns. The U.S. doesn’t have this baggage, and if our foreign policy makers can find a way to use Hydro-electric development and effective water-sharing agreements to their advantage, they’ll win international position in a way that helps people’s lives. Russia will never do that. For more food for thought on this, check out a Brookings report from last year, here.

But, our bias is one of cooperationism, which has its critics among international theorists. We just think that there’s strategic power in peace, growth, and prosperity. But that’s just what we think.

Tags: Brookings Institute, Cooperationism, Hillary Clinton, Hydropower, Insitute for War and Peace Reporting, Irish Times, Resource Conflict, U.S.-Central Asian relations, Water Diplomacy